France’s Le Pen Awaits Verdict That Could End Presidential Aspirations

PARIS, 28 March 2025 (BSS/AFP) – A French court is set to deliver its verdict on Monday in the trial of far-right leader Marine Le Pen over an alleged fraudulent jobs scheme at the European Parliament, a ruling that could derail her bid for the presidency in 2027.

Le Pen, a three-time presidential candidate who sees 2027 as her best opportunity yet to secure the French presidency, has vehemently denied any wrongdoing. However, prosecutors in the case, which also involves senior National Rally (RN) officials, have called for her to receive both a prison sentence and a ban on holding public office.

The latter sanction would take effect even if she appeals, effectively disqualifying her from the presidential race should the court comply with the prosecutors’ recommendation.

With her RN party emerging as the largest political force in parliament following the 2024 legislative elections, Le Pen believes she has the momentum to finally capture the Élysée Palace, capitalising on widespread public concerns over immigration and the rising cost of living.

She played a key role in toppling the government of then-Prime Minister Michel Barnier in a no-confidence vote last year, underscoring her political influence.

Should she triumph in 2027, she would join a growing list of hard-right and far-right leaders across the world, including Giorgia Meloni in Italy and Viktor Orbán in Hungary. However, if the court ruling ends her ambitions, her protégé and current RN leader, Jordan Bardella, just 29, could step in. Despite his leadership role, doubts persist even within the party regarding his readiness for a presidential campaign.

Le Pen assumed leadership of the then-National Front (FN) in 2011, swiftly transforming it into an electoral force and distancing it from the controversial legacy of its co-founder and her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who passed away earlier this year. Under her leadership, the party was rebranded as the National Rally, with a strategy of “dédiabolisation” (de-demonisation) aimed at making it electable at the highest level.

‘Political Death’ Threat Looms

Beyond Le Pen herself, her party is also facing legal jeopardy. The RN could be fined up to 4.3 million euros (£3.7 million), with less than half of the sum suspended.

A total of 24 individuals are on trial, including nine former Members of the European Parliament and 12 parliamentary assistants. Prosecutors allege that MEPs misused their 21,000-euro monthly allowances to fund party operations instead of legitimate parliamentary work.

Last year, prosecutors sought a five-year prison sentence for Le Pen, of which three years would be suspended and the remaining two potentially served outside prison under electronic monitoring. They also demanded a 300,000-euro (£259,000) fine and a five-year ban on holding public office.

In an unexpected move, they requested that the office ban take effect immediately, even pending appeal—a process that could stretch on for years. Le Pen had previously assumed that an appeal would allow her to continue her political career regardless of the verdict.

“I believe the prosecutor’s aim is to deprive the French people of their right to vote for the candidate of their choice,” said a visibly shocked Le Pen after hearing the prosecutors’ demands, accusing them of seeking “my political death.”

However, prosecutors maintain that their actions are not politically motivated, refuting claims of “harassment” against the RN. They argue that the fraudulent scheme, spanning from 2004 to 2016, was unprecedented both in its scale and duration, causing an estimated 4.5 million euros (£3.9 million) in financial losses. They further contend that the scheme became even more “organised” under Le Pen’s leadership from 2011 onwards.

Uncertain Political Landscape for 2027

The broader picture for France’s 2027 presidential election remains unclear. With President Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from seeking re-election, the field is wide open, with no definitive frontrunner from the centre or traditional right.

One potential contender, Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, has expressed unease at the prospect of Le Pen being disqualified. “It would be profoundly shocking if Le Pen were unable to stand,” he remarked last November while still a backbencher.

The court’s ruling will not only determine Le Pen’s political future but could also reshape France’s political landscape in the run-up to the 2027 election.