Banking Outlook 2026: Growth, Deals, and Regulation

The banking industry is entering 2026 on the back of a robust 2025, which saw a remarkable surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and a spike in applications for new banks. Analysts suggest that the momentum from last year is likely to carry into this year, potentially surpassing prior expectations.

In 2025, the sector witnessed 181 M&A transactions, according to S&P Global. Brian Graham, co-founder of financial advisory firm Klaros Group, forecasts that the number of deals could double in 2026, driven by pent-up demand from earlier in the decade and faster regulatory evaluations. Analysts also note that banks may expedite deals in anticipation of the 2026 midterm elections or the 2028 presidential vote, aiming to complete transactions before potential political shifts affect policy.

Smaller banks, however, may face a more constrained environment. Many midsize institutions, once considered potential buyers, are increasingly acquisition targets for larger banks, shrinking the “buyer universe” available to community and regional banks.

M&A is not the only area seeing growth. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) received 18 de novo applications in 2025. Michele Alt, Klaros co-founder, estimates that 2026 could see 25 or more new bank applications, with early filings already including Bunq, the Trump-affiliated crypto firm World Liberty Financial, and Nomura spinoff Laser Digital.

While 2025 was marked by deregulation, with several Biden-era rules rolled back, 2026 may witness a recalibration of oversight. Trump-appointed regulators are expected to reshape rules to reflect their priorities, potentially tightening certain areas while allowing continued expansion in others.

Other trends set to dominate the year include the integration of artificial intelligence, digital banking innovations, and strategic realignments among global and regional players. As banks navigate this evolving landscape, 2026 may well be remembered as a year of both consolidation and transformation.

Key Banking Statistics: 2025 vs 2026 Forecast

If 2025 was the “trailblazer” year, 2026 promises to be its sequel: bigger deals, more new banks, and a regulatory landscape reshaped for the next chapter of American banking.