Sunday, 5th April 2026
Khabor Wala Desk
Published: 8th October 2025, 7:34 AM
This year, one thing is almost certain regarding the Nobel Peace Prize: US President Donald Trump will not be among the recipients, regardless of his own claims. The question that now captivates observers is: who will?
The suspense will conclude on Friday at 11:00 am Oslo time (09:00 GMT), when the Norwegian Nobel Committee officially announces the winner.
The backdrop for this year’s prize is sobering. According to Uppsala University’s global conflict database, the number of armed conflicts worldwide involving at least one state reached its highest level since 1946.
Trump has repeatedly claimed that he deserves the prestigious prize for resolving “eight conflicts”, but experts suggest that his chances are slim.
“No, it will not be Trump this year,” said Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, an expert in international affairs, speaking to AFP.
He added cautiously, “Perhaps next year? By then, the dust may have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis.”
Many analysts consider Trump’s “peacemaker” claims exaggerated, raising concerns about his “America First” policies.
Nina Graeger, head of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo, remarked: “Beyond trying to broker peace for Gaza, we have observed policies that run counter to Alfred Nobel’s intentions, notably promoting international cooperation, the fraternity of nations, and disarmament.”
Graeger highlighted numerous actions by Trump that diverge from the ideals of the Peace Prize:
| Area | Examples |
| International Relations | Withdrawal from international organisations and multilateral treaties, trade wars with allies and adversaries |
| Territorial Aggression | Threats to take Greenland from Denmark |
| Domestic Security | Deployment of the National Guard in US cities |
| Academic Freedom | Attacks on universities and restrictions on freedom of expression |
“We take the complete picture into account,” said Jorgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the five-member Nobel Peace Prize committee.
“The entire organisation or personality of a nominee matters, but foremost we examine their actual achievements for the cause of peace.”
This year, 338 individuals and organisations have been nominated. The Nobel Committee keeps the nominations secret for 50 years.
Eligible nominators include:
In 2024, the prize was awarded to Japan’s atomic bomb survivors’ group Nihon Hidankyo for its efforts to ban nuclear weapons.
With no clear favourite this year, several candidates are being discussed in Oslo:
| Potential Nominee | Reason |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms | Volunteers risking lives to feed and aid populations affected by war and famine |
| Yulia Navalnaya | Widow of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny |
| Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) | Election monitoring and promotion of democratic processes |
Halvard Leira, director of the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs, notes: “The committee appears to be returning to micro-level initiatives, closer to classical ideas of peace, with a focus on human rights, democracy, freedom of the press, and women’s rights.”
“My hunch is that this year’s winner will be a less controversial candidate.”
Other possible choices could include reaffirming commitment to the international world order, such as:
Nevertheless, the Nobel Committee has a long history of surprising selections, and this year could be no exception.
The announcement on Friday promises to settle speculation, whether it confirms an expected candidate or introduces an entirely unexpected laureate.
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