United States and Iran Engage in High-Stakes Nuclear Negotiations

MUSCAT, Oman, 12 April 2025 (BSS/AFP) – The United States and Iran are set to commence high-stakes nuclear discussions in Oman, amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and explicit threats of military intervention from former US President Donald Trump should a new deal not emerge.

Historic Talks Underway in Muscat

After years of diplomatic silence and deteriorating trust, representatives from Washington and Tehran are meeting for what could become a pivotal moment in regional and global security.

The closed-door talks, being held in Muscat, the capital of Oman—a neutral neighbour to Iran—are led by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. This marks the highest-level dialogue between the two adversaries since the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, which was unilaterally abandoned by Trump in 2018 during his first term in office.

Diverging Narratives on Negotiation Format

The nature of the discussions remains unclear. The United States has termed them direct talks, whereas Iran insists an intermediary is involved. Iranian state media reports suggest that Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi will mediate initial indirect meetings, expected to commence in the afternoon.

Stakes and Threats: A Tense Backdrop

Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One just hours before the dialogue began, reiterated his hardline stance:

“I want Iran to be a wonderful, great, happy country. But they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump has openly stated that military action remains on the table if diplomacy fails.

“If it requires military, we're going to have military,” he warned earlier in the week.

In response, Iran threatened to expel UN nuclear inspectors, a move Washington labelled an “escalation”.

Why Now? Strategic Calculations on Both Sides

Motivations for Negotiation:

Iran has suffered under years of sanctions, compounded by Israel’s aggressive strikes on Iranian allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. The regime faces mounting internal dissatisfaction and economic pressure.

Nuclear Capability in Focus

Iran insists its nuclear ambitions are purely civilian, but its actions tell a different story. According to the latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA):

Iran has stockpiled 274.8 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, dangerously close to the 90% threshold required for weapons-grade material.

This has raised "serious concern" among international observers.

US envoy Witkoff has maintained that Iran must completely dismantle its nuclear infrastructure—an approach few expect Iran to accept.

However, he added there may be room for compromise, provided that “there can’t be weaponisation of nuclear capability.”

Beyond the Atom: Regional Dimensions of the Deal

While nuclear disarmament is at the centre, analysts suggest the scope could broaden.

Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group noted:

“Iran is likely to engage on steps to roll back its nuclear programme, but not dismantle it entirely.”

Karim Bitar, a lecturer at Sciences Po, Paris, explained:

“The deal would have to include Iran halting its support to regional allies”—a key demand of US Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Looking Ahead: Survival or Stalemate?

For Tehran, the outcome may determine the survival of the regime itself. Analysts believe that securing sanctions relief could breathe life into an ailing economy and restore a modicum of popular support at home.

Whether Saturday's discussions will extend beyond the day or bear fruit remains uncertain. However, with military threats looming and nuclear tension escalating, the world watches closely as Muscat hosts a fragile yet crucial diplomatic opportunity.