Trump Unlikely to Win Nobel Peace Prize – Who Might?

This year, one thing is almost certain regarding the Nobel Peace Prize: US President Donald Trump will not be among the recipients, regardless of his own claims. The question that now captivates observers is: who will?

The suspense will conclude on Friday at 11:00 am Oslo time (09:00 GMT), when the Norwegian Nobel Committee officially announces the winner.

The backdrop for this year’s prize is sobering. According to Uppsala University’s global conflict database, the number of armed conflicts worldwide involving at least one state reached its highest level since 1946.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that he deserves the prestigious prize for resolving “eight conflicts”, but experts suggest that his chances are slim.

“No, it will not be Trump this year,” said Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, an expert in international affairs, speaking to AFP.

He added cautiously, “Perhaps next year? By then, the dust may have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis.”

Many analysts consider Trump’s “peacemaker” claims exaggerated, raising concerns about his “America First” policies.

Nina Graeger, head of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo, remarked: “Beyond trying to broker peace for Gaza, we have observed policies that run counter to Alfred Nobel’s intentions, notably promoting international cooperation, the fraternity of nations, and disarmament.”

Graeger highlighted numerous actions by Trump that diverge from the ideals of the Peace Prize:

“We take the complete picture into account,” said Jorgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the five-member Nobel Peace Prize committee.
“The entire organisation or personality of a nominee matters, but foremost we examine their actual achievements for the cause of peace.”

This year, 338 individuals and organisations have been nominated. The Nobel Committee keeps the nominations secret for 50 years.

Eligible nominators include:

• Lawmakers and cabinet members from all countries,
• Former laureates,
• Certain university professors,
• Members of the Nobel Committee itself.

In 2024, the prize was awarded to Japan’s atomic bomb survivors’ group Nihon Hidankyo for its efforts to ban nuclear weapons.

With no clear favourite this year, several candidates are being discussed in Oslo:

Halvard Leira, director of the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs, notes: “The committee appears to be returning to micro-level initiatives, closer to classical ideas of peace, with a focus on human rights, democracy, freedom of the press, and women’s rights.”
“My hunch is that this year’s winner will be a less controversial candidate.”

Other possible choices could include reaffirming commitment to the international world order, such as:

• UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres,
• UN agencies like UNHCR or UNRWA,
• International tribunals such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or the International Criminal Court (ICC),
• Organisations defending press freedom, such as the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders.

Nevertheless, the Nobel Committee has a long history of surprising selections, and this year could be no exception.

The announcement on Friday promises to settle speculation, whether it confirms an expected candidate or introduces an entirely unexpected laureate.