Are Indian Americans Concerned About US-India Relations Under a Second Trump Term? Here’s What Survey Says

A growing number of Indian Americans are concerned about the future of US-India relations under a second Donald Trump administration, a new survey has found.

The 2024 Indian-American Survey, conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and YouGov in October, examined the political attitudes of Indian-origin Americans, a demographic of more than five million people in the US. The findings, cited by the BBC, highlight key perspectives on Biden’s handling of bilateral ties, Trump’s second term, and India’s trajectory.

Key Findings

• Biden vs. Trump on US-India Relations: Indian Americans rated the Biden administration’s handling of US-India relations more favorably than Trump’s first term. A hypothetical Kamala Harris presidency was also viewed as more beneficial for bilateral ties than a second Trump term.
• Partisan Divide: Political affiliation strongly influenced opinions – 66% of Indian-American Republicans believe Trump was better for US-India relations, while only 8% of Democrats agreed. Conversely, 50% of Democratic respondents favored Biden, compared to just 15% of Republicans. Given that most Indian Americans lean Democratic, this gave Biden an overall advantage.
• Trump’s Mixed Record on India: Despite warm relations with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump has criticized India's high trade tariffs, calling them a “big problem” during a White House meeting in February.

Assassination Plot and Diplomatic Strain

The survey also revealed a lack of widespread awareness about a major diplomatic controversy: the alleged plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist on US soil.

Only half of the respondents were aware of the case involving Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a US-based advocate for an independent Sikh state (Khalistan).

In October, US authorities charged a former Indian intelligence officer with attempted murder and money laundering for allegedly plotting to kill Pannun. This marked the first time India has been directly implicated in an assassination attempt on a dissident abroad.

India has denied involvement but is cooperating with the US investigation. In January, an Indian panel recommended legal action against an unnamed individual believed to be the former intelligence agent.

Views on India’s Direction and Global Conflicts

India’s Future: 47% of Indian Americans believe India is heading in the right direction, a 10-point increase from four years ago. The same percentage approve of Modi’s performance. Additionally, 40% feel that India's 2024 election – where Modi’s party lost its parliamentary majority – made the country more democratic.

Israel-Palestine Conflict: Indian Americans remain divided along party lines. Democrats expressed greater sympathy for Palestinians, while Republicans leaned pro-Israel. About 40% of respondents felt that Biden has been too supportive of Israel in the ongoing war.

The survey underscores the complexities of Indian-American political attitudes, with strong partisan divides shaping perspectives on US-India relations, global conflicts, and India’s internal politics. As Trump’s second term unfolds, these issues could play a crucial role in shaping Indian-American preferences.