Thunder vs Lakers: Odds, Predictions, and Insights

The Los Angeles Lakers (32-19) are set to host the Oklahoma City Thunder (40-13) in a pivotal NBA matchup on Monday, February 9, 2026, at 10:00 p.m. ET. The Lakers are entering this contest after securing three consecutive home victories, while the Thunder, boasting one of the league’s best records, are favourites by 5.5 points.

Match Prediction and Betting Outlook

According to our computer projection model, Oklahoma City is expected to maintain their strong form and edge past Los Angeles with a predicted scoreline of:

Thunder: 118

Lakers: 112

Recommended Bets:

Moneyline: Thunder (-222)

Total Points: Over 218.5 (computer predicts 229.9)

Against the Spread (ATS): Thunder (-5.5)

This forecast reflects Oklahoma City’s superior record and recent dominance in head-to-head clashes with the Lakers.

Recent Head-to-Head Results

2025–26 Betting Trends

Oklahoma City Thunder:

Against the spread (ATS): 25–28–0

ATS as 5.5+ point favourites: 24–25

Games exceeding point total: 29 of 51 (56.9%)

Favourite win rate: 40 of 52 games (76.9%)

Moneyline favourites (-222 or stronger) win rate: 38 of 47 (80.9%)

Los Angeles Lakers:

ATS record: 28–23–0

ATS as 5.5+ point underdogs: 2–4

Games exceeding point total: 28 of 51 (54.9%)

Moneyline underdog win rate: 8 of 20 (40%)

Moneyline underdogs at +183 or longer: 2 of 6 (33.3%)

Injury Report

Oklahoma City Thunder:

Thomas Sorber: Out for season (knee)

Nikola Topic: Out (groin)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Out (abdomen)

Ajay Mitchell: Day-to-day (abdominal)

Jalen Williams: Day-to-day (hamstring)

Los Angeles Lakers:

Adou Thiero: Out (knee)

Luka Doncic: Day-to-day (hamstring)

Analysis

The Thunder’s consistency, particularly as favourites, makes them a formidable opponent for the Lakers. Even with key players sidelined, Oklahoma City’s depth and offensive efficiency have propelled them to an 80.9% moneyline win rate when heavily favoured. Los Angeles will rely on momentum from their recent home streak, but their underdog record suggests challenges against a high-powered Thunder squad. Fans and bettors should note the projected high-scoring nature of this matchup, with the total expected to exceed 218 points comfortably.

With playoff positioning on the line, this game promises to be an intense contest between two elite Western Conference teams.