Delayed Southwest Monsoon Triggers Coastal and Southeastern Rainfall

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) has confirmed that the southwest monsoon has advanced into the country, initiating a gradual expansion across several districts after a delay of approximately one week. The system officially crossed into Bangladesh on Saturday via the Teknaf region in the far south-east. Following a marked increase in precipitation on Sunday, meteorological forecasts indicate that rainfall will persist on Monday, concentrated primarily within the zones currently affected by the monsoon.

Meteorologists have clarified that the onset of the monsoon does not immediately translate to uniform, nationwide rainfall. The incoming weather system is presently encountering resistance from an active western low-pressure system. This atmospheric conflict may result in a temporary reduction in overall rainfall over the coming days. The BMD highlighted that the precipitation recorded over the weekend was driven by the western low-pressure system rather than the newly arrived monsoon.

According to Kazi Jebunnesa, a senior meteorologist at the BMD, the monsoon has successfully established its presence across the southeastern and southern coastal belts. In an official communication on Monday, she noted that the system has blanketed the Chittagong division and its adjacent areas, alongside the coastal district of Satkhira in the south. While these specific localities are braced for monsoon-driven rain, the rest of the country is expected to see only scattered, isolated showers.

Temperature Analysis and Heatwave Thresholds

The regional rainfall is not projected to bring widespread relief from the heat, and general temperatures across the country are expected to remain stable on Monday. On Sunday, the highest temperature nationwide was recorded in the Rajshahi district at $36.5^\circ\text{C}$, whilst two other observation points logged temperatures of $36^\circ\text{C}$.

Under BMD criteria, a sustained temperature of $36^\circ\text{C}$ or above denotes a mild heatwave. However, because these readings were confined to isolated pockets rather than a continuous geographical area, the department has withheld an official heatwave declaration.

Outlook for Dhaka and Surroundings

In a localized morning forecast issued for Dhaka and its immediate peripheries, the meteorological office noted a possibility of rain or thundershowers occurring before midday. Kazi Jebunnesa later clarified that whilst the surrounding administrative boundaries of Dhaka may experience rainfall, the probability of precipitation inside the city centre remains minimal. On Sunday, Dhaka recorded a maximum temperature of $35.2^\circ\text{C}$. Although the temperature remains below the official heatwave threshold, high humidity levels continue to amplify the perception of warmth amongst residents.

Meteorological Overview

The table below outlines the temperature records and localized forecasts across key regions as reported by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department: