Bangladesh Trade Deficit Swells to $24 Billion Despite Account Surplus

Bangladesh’s trade deficit expanded significantly during the first eleven months of the 2025-26 fiscal year, driven primarily by persistent volatility in global commodity markets, elevated fuel import costs, and sluggish export growth. Official Balance of Payments (BoP) data released by Bangladesh Bank indicates that the merchandise trade gap widened to approximately $23.98 billion between July and May. This represents a substantial 24 per cent increase—amounting to an additional $4.61 billion—compared to the $19.38 billion deficit recorded during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

The central bank’s statistical breakdown reveals a sharp month-on-month escalation in import-export disparities. By the end of April, the cumulative trade deficit stood at $22.21 billion. However, a rapid surge in import expenditure during May added $1.77 billion to the shortfall in just thirty days. Total import spending for the eleven-month period reached $64.02 billion, vastly outstripping national export earnings, which crawled to $40.04 billion. This widening imbalance contrasts sharply with the trajectory of the 2024-25 fiscal year, which concluded with a narrowed trade deficit of $20.45 billion, down from the $22.43 billion recorded in 2023-24.

Despite the pressure on visible trade, the broader macroeconomic indicators offer some relief, characterized by a structural improvement in the current account balance. The current account deficit, which reflects the net flow of goods, services, and primary income, shrank significantly to $301 million for the July-May period. This marks a massive recovery from the cumulative ten-month deficit of $1.23 billion reported at the end of April, driven largely by buoyant inward worker remittances and curtailed non-essential services spending. The figure also marks a year-on-year improvement against the $778 million current account deficit seen during the same span of the 2024-25 fiscal year.

Concurrently, Bangladesh maintained a highly robust surplus in its financial account, registering an impressive $4.16 billion inflow by the end of May. The financial account—which tracks foreign direct investment, short-term loans, and external aid—faced a bumpy start to the fiscal year, plunging into a $916 million deficit in July. However, consistent capital inflows reversed the trend, lifting the ledger to a $1.66 billion surplus by September, $2.04 billion by December, and $3.55 billion by March, before crossing the $4 billion milestone in May. This performance signals a profound structural turnaround from the $214 million financial account deficit recorded in the same period of 2024-25.

Backed by this foreign capital cushion, the overall Balance of Payments recorded a net surplus of approximately $4.02 billion (or $4019 million) for the eleven-month window. Similar to the financial account, the overall balance recovered from an initial $545 million deficit in July before swinging into positive territory in August and strengthening to an $853 million surplus by September. This steady accumulation follows a $3.29 billion surplus at the close of the 2024-25 fiscal year, demonstrating a sustained stabilization after the severe $4.30 billion macroeconomic deficit suffered back in the 2023-24 fiscal cycle.