Secret Gulf Attacks in Iran Alter Regional Dynamics

the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia covertly launched multiple military strikes inside Iran during recent United States-Israeli operations against Tehran. Analysts suggest these cross-border actions were direct retaliation for previous Iranian drone and missile strikes targeting critical Gulf infrastructure.

While none of the involved nations have officially confirmed the operations, unnamed officials stated early this week that at least two Gulf states conducted “secret” bombings inside Iranian territory during the broader conflict. If verified, these operations mark the first instance of direct military strikes executed by Gulf Arab states on Iranian soil.

Alleged Strikes and Operational Timelines

The details surrounding the alleged military interventions outline distinct operational windows and specific targets for both Gulf nations:

• The United Arab Emirates: The Wall Street Journal, citing officials familiar with the matter, reported that the UAE struck several Iranian installations in early April. A primary target of this aerial campaign was an oil refinery located on Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf.

• Saudi Arabia: Reuters, quoting two Iranian and two Western officials, revealed that Riyadh executed “numerous” airstrikes inside Iranian borders in late March.

Technical Capabilities and Independent Evidence

Experts argue that both nations possess the required hardware to execute precise cross-border operations. Shahin Modarres, an expert on Iran and Middle East conflicts at the International Team for the Study of Security Verona, confirmed that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi maintain the most modern and well-equipped air forces in the region, providing them with the uncompromised capability to deliver precision strikes against Iranian infrastructure.

However, prior to the outbreak of hostilities, both states refused to let the US use their airspace to launch attacks against Iran, indicating an initial unified effort to avoid direct involvement.

Physical evidence supporting the UAE’s involvement has emerged online. Veronica Hynman, Deputy Director of the Portsmouth Military Education Team at the University of Portsmouth, noted that certain available images strongly confirm Emirati military involvement. Independent military analysts identified French-made Mirage fighter jets and Chinese-manufactured Wing Loong drones flying in Iranian airspace via social media—both of which are primary assets operated by the UAE air force.

Contextual Drivers: Iranian Provocations

The underlying motivation for the alleged counter-strikes stems from an extensive Iranian campaign targeting Gulf infrastructure. During the conflict, Tehran repeatedly launched drone and missile strikes at both Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Analysts believe these provocations aimed to raise the economic costs for the US-Israeli coalition, disrupt vital energy facilities, and shatter the long-standing “safe haven” reputation that Gulf nations use to attract international investors.

While Saudi Arabia suffered notable damage, the UAE faced unprecedented pressure. According to data compiled by The Wall Street Journal, Iran launched more than 2,800 drones and missiles at the UAE over the course of the conflict—a figure surpassing the total number of projectiles directed at Israel.

Shifting Alliances and Diplomatic Fallout

In response to sustained escalation, the UAE has increasingly coordinated with Israel. During the peak of the Iranian attacks, Israel supplied Abu Dhabi with its Iron Dome air defence system alongside trained personnel to operate the infrastructure. Furthermore, the Israeli Prime Minister’s office stated that Benjamin Netanyahu visited the UAE during the conflict to strengthen bilateral ties, though Emirati authorities officially denied the visit. Abu Dhabi previously normalised relations with Israel under the US-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020.

This shifting dynamic drew harsh criticism from Tehran. At a BRICS summit in India, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned Abu Dhabi, labelling the UAE an “active partner in US-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic”. Araghchi stated:

“I want to say that the United Arab Emirates was directly involved in this aggression committed against my country. When this aggression started, they even refused to condemn it.”

Conversely, Andreas Krieg, a Senior Lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, observed that Saudi Arabia adopted a far more cautious approach. Riyadh chose to utilise diplomatic channels through Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar, explicitly communicating that it had no intention of joining a combined war alongside Israel.

Strategic Discretion and Future Outlook

The decision to keep the military operations classified served specific strategic purposes for both kingdoms:

• De-escalation: Keeping the incursions covert ensured that Tehran would not be publicly humiliated, which would have legally or politically forced the Iranian regime into a massive retaliatory response.

• Information Targeted at Leadership: Krieg noted that the attacks were a precise message meant specifically for the ears of the Iranian authorities rather than the general public.

• Deniability: The UAE had significant incentives to deny involvement to prevent Iranian propaganda from successfully painting Abu Dhabi as Israel’s primary Arab proxy.

The long-term geopolitical landscape of the Middle East remains permanently altered by these developments. Analysts suggest that even if a temporary ceasefire holds, Iran must now calculate the real threat of direct, unassisted retaliation from its immediate neighbours. For the Gulf states, initiating strikes inside Iran blurs the line between purely defensive measures and active warfare, leaving the UAE particularly exposed due to its bolder diplomatic alignment.

Ultimately, these events signal a growing desire among Gulf monarchies to assume independent responsibility for their own territorial defence rather than relying solely on the traditional American security umbrella.