Trump Plans Breaking Diplomatic Protocol to Talk with Taiwan

US President Donald Trump has announced his intention to speak directly with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te regarding a potential arms sale to the island. This decision represents a significant departure from long-standing US foreign policy and diplomatic protocol. Since 1979, when the United States officially recognised the government in Beijing and severed formal diplomatic ties with Taipei, no sitting US president has held direct talks with a Taiwanese leader.

Historical Context and Legal Framework

Beijing considers Taiwan to be an inseparable part of its territory and has consistently refused to rule out the use of force to bring the island under its control. In response to the diplomatic shift in 1979, the US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act. This domestic law mandates that the United States provide Taiwan with the necessary means for self-defence. Consequently, Washington has maintained a steady stream of weapons sales to Taipei, whilst simultaneously navigating a delicate strategic balance to preserve diplomatic relations with Beijing.

When asked by journalists on Wednesday whether he would communicate with President Lai before finalising the pending weapons deal, Trump stated: “I will speak to him. I speak to everybody… we are going to work out the Taiwan problem.” This assertion followed comments made last week aboard Air Force One whilst returning from a two-day bilateral summit in Beijing. Trump had previously remarked: “I’ll be making a decision in a very short period of time. I have to speak to the person running Taiwan right now, you know who that is.” Despite the potential friction this dialogue could cause, Trump characterised his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping as “extraordinary”.

Bilateral Tensions and the Pending Arms Package

The proposed arms package currently awaiting a final decision is valued at approximately $14 billion (£11.1 billion). It reportedly includes counter-drone equipment and air defence missile systems aimed at upgrading Taiwan’s military capabilities. Since assuming office in 2024, President Lai Ching-te has launched the most substantial initiative in recent years to fortify the island’s defences against increasing military pressure from mainland China.

The current geopolitical friction surrounding the arms deal involves several interconnected developments:

Strategic Stances and Constitutional Norms

During Trump’s recent visit to Beijing, Chinese officials made it explicitly clear that Taiwan remains the most sensitive issue within US-China bilateral relations. President Xi Jinping issued a direct warning, noting that if the issue is mishandled, it could lead to an outright conflict between the two superpowers. Although Trump has dismissed the likelihood of a military confrontation over Taiwan, he acknowledged that Xi maintains a “very tough” stance on the matter. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump noted: “I didn’t make any promises to either side.”

Following the Trump-Xi summit, President Lai issued an official statement reaffirming that Taiwan is a “sovereign, independent, and democratic country.” He emphasised that the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait would not be “sacrificed or traded” for any external agreements, describing US weapons procurement as a crucial component in maintaining regional security. Under Lai’s leadership, Taiwan has raised its defence budget to record levels.

Precedents of Breaking Protocol

This is not the first instance where Trump has circumvented traditional diplomatic channels regarding Taiwan. In 2016, as President-elect, he accepted a congratulatory telephone call from Taiwan’s then-President, Tsai Ing-wen, prompting a formal and severe diplomatic protest from Beijing to Washington.

Furthermore, Trump claimed to have engaged in “detailed discussions” regarding the potential arms sale with President Xi during their summit. If verified, such consultations would violate the 1982 bilateral agreement known as the “Six Assurances”. Under this framework, Washington assured Taipei that it would not consult Beijing prior to selling weapons to Taiwan. When questioned by journalists regarding this long-standing commitment upon his return from Beijing, Trump dismissed the historical policy, stating: “That was a long time ago.”

Currently, while the vast majority of Taiwanese citizens view their homeland as an independent state, public sentiment strongly favours maintaining the political status quo. This means they generally oppose both a formal, unilateral declaration of independence and unification with the People’s Republic of China.