US Second Quarter GDP Growth Reflects Turbulence from Tariffs

Analysts anticipate a rebound in the United States’ economic growth for the second quarter of the year, primarily driven by trade-related distortions as businesses raced to avoid the harshest impacts of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime. However, experts warn that this uptick is temporary and masks underlying fragilities in the economy.

According to consensus forecasts from Briefing.com, the US economy is projected to expand at an annualised rate of 2.5% between April and June. This represents a significant turnaround from the 0.5% contraction recorded in the first quarter.

Temporary Rebound Driven by Trade Activity

The short-term surge in GDP is largely attributed to changes in trade behaviour, particularly inventory stockpiling and import surges in anticipation of increased tariffs. Companies frontloaded purchases to sidestep rising costs, leading to an abnormal economic boost.

“It’s very much distorted by the trade flows and inventory,”
— Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Economist, Nationwide

Goldman Sachs noted that the first-quarter import surge caused the largest negative impact on GDP from net exports ever recorded. As that surge recedes, a mechanical rebound in growth was expected.

Still, Bostjancic cautioned that the boost is not sustainable, as investment and consumption — the main engines of US economic growth — are likely to weaken under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty.

Timeline of Tariff Measures

Mounting Economic Pressures

Despite the apparent rebound, economists caution that the underlying momentum of the economy is softening:

“The US economy continues to navigate a complex set of crosscurrents, obscuring a clear reading of its underlying momentum.”
— Gregory Daco, Chief Economist, EY

Daco highlights a combination of factors weighing on the economy:

• Tariff-induced inflation
• Policy uncertainty
• Restricted immigration
• Elevated interest rates

These pressures are already curbing employment, business investment, and household spending — three critical components of GDP.

Slower Growth on the Horizon

Economists advise analysing the first and second quarters collectively to gauge the real trend. According to Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics:

“The likely average growth rate of about 1.5% across Q1 and Q2 represents a clear deceleration from the 3% annual growth seen over the past two years.”

Tombs further predicts:

• GDP to grow just 1% in H2 of this year
• A loss of momentum in Q3 as imported consumer goods become more expensive
• Investment delays as businesses respond to economic policy uncertainty

Summary Table: US Economic Outlook

The second quarter may show a stronger headline figure, but analysts agree: the US economy is navigating turbulent waters, and the boost from trade timing is unlikely to mask longer-term challenges.