The Iran conflict has triggered one of the most significant disruptions to global energy supply in modern history. According to estimates from analysts and the news agency Reuters, the war has resulted in the world losing more than 50 billion US dollars’ worth of crude oil over a period of just 50 days.
The calculation, as explained in the Reuters report, is based on the volume of crude oil that was not produced during this 50-day period due to the conflict, rather than oil that was physically destroyed or permanently removed from reserves. In total, the value of the unproduced crude is estimated to exceed 50 billion dollars.
Market analysis firm Kpler provides supporting data indicating that global supply of crude oil and condensates declined by more than 500 million barrels following the outbreak of the crisis. This figure represents oil that would normally have entered the global market but was not produced as a direct consequence of the disruption.
The conflict reportedly began on 28 February, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran. This escalation marked the start of the period under assessment. A ceasefire agreement was later reached, lasting 14 days. However, according to the available reports, the stability of this ceasefire remains uncertain as its validity period approaches its end.
Reuters notes that the scale of this disruption is unprecedented in the context of modern energy markets. Previous supply shocks have affected global oil flows, but not on this level within such a short timeframe. The impact is expected to continue influencing the market beyond the immediate 50-day period, potentially extending into the coming months or even years, depending on how the situation develops.
Key figures from reported estimates
| Indicator |
Figure |
| Duration of disruption |
50 days |
| Estimated value of lost crude oil |
Over US$50 billion |
| Reduction in global supply |
Over 500 million barrels |
| Start of conflict period |
28 February |
| Ceasefire duration |
14 days |
The figures highlight the scale of the supply interruption and its potential implications for global energy markets. Analysts cited in the report emphasise that the loss is not limited to immediate production but also reflects wider disruptions in export flows, logistics, and market stability during the conflict period.
Overall, the situation underscores the vulnerability of global oil supply chains to geopolitical instability, particularly in regions that play a significant role in energy production and transit.
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