Bangladesh is witnessing an unprecedented influx of remittances from its diaspora abroad, pushing foreign exchange reserves to healthier levels. Yet, acute underlying anxieties persist across the financial sector. Rising import liabilities, escalating external debt servicing obligations, and uneven dollar availability among commercial banks continue to strain the foreign exchange market. Economists and market analysts stress that while top-line inflows are encouraging, the timing, distribution channels, and immediate liquidity needs of individual institutions remain critical factors governing currency stability.
Data released by Bangladesh Bank indicates that remittances reached approximately $35.59 billion in the 2025–26 fiscal year, representing a robust 17.3 percent year-on-year growth—an increase of roughly $5.25 billion. In the first ten days of October alone, remittance inflows totaled 121.77 billion taka, maintaining this upward trajectory following a single-month record of $3.75 billion registered earlier in March.
However, escalating import expenditures have largely outpaced these remittance gains. Import costs rose by nearly $6.8 billion over the same period to reach $71.14 billion. Concurrently, export earnings stagnated at approximately $43.85 billion, reflecting minimal growth. This imbalance expanded the merchandise trade deficit to an estimated $27.28 billion, ensuring that demand for foreign currency remains stubbornly high.
Gross foreign reserves stood at $36.39 billion as of 17 October, or $31.58 billion when calculated under the International Monetary Fund’s BPM6 methodology. Addressing the situation, Mahdee Amin, Advisor to the Prime Minister and Spokesperson for the Prime Minister’s Office, noted that while aggregate reserves have expanded to around $36.58 billion, a clear distinction exists between headline national reserves and operational dollar liquidity across commercial banks. Commercial liquidity depends heavily on export proceeds, prompt remittance settlements, interbank transfers, and import payment schedules.
To ensure long-term balance, experts emphasize the need to curtail informal hundi channels, streamline banking flows, and expand skilled manpower exports beyond traditional Middle Eastern markets into Europe and North America. In line with this strategy, the Italian government plans to host a special initiative next month aimed at providing technical training to Bangladeshi workers, creating structured pathways for legal migration, simplifying student visas, and placing skilled labor abroad.
Adding to the complexity, external financing dynamics have tightened. Sakif Shamim, Chairman of the Centre for Strategic and Economic Research (CSER) and Managing Director of Labaid Hospital Group, highlighted that foreign aid disbursements fell from $8.57 billion to $8.07 billion over the fiscal year. Over the same timeframe, foreign debt servicing—encompassing both principal and interest repayments—climbed from $4.09 billion to nearly $4.49 billion. Consequently, net foreign aid inflows plunged from $4.48 billion to $3.58 billion.
Despite these liquidity pressures, banking leadership maintains a measured outlook. Mashrur Arefin, Managing Director of City Bank and Chairman of the Association of Bankers, Bangladesh (ABB), acknowledged that domestic inflation exceeding 8.5 percent would naturally exert pressure across macroeconomic indicators and foreign exchange rates. Nonetheless, he reassured the market that commercial banks currently hold adequate dollar reserves, noting there is no cause for panic provided export receipts, debt obligations, and capital flows are managed systematically.
