Monday, 27th April 2026
Khabor Wala Desk
Published: 27th April 2026, 11:55 AM
Gallagher Re has reported that global insured catastrophe losses for the first quarter of 2026 amounted to at least US$20 billion, marking a significant decline compared with long-term trends. The figure is approximately 26% below the ten-year Q1 average of $26 billion and 47% lower than the most recent five-year average, signalling a relatively subdued start to the year for the re/insurance industry.
Total economic losses from natural perils during the same period were estimated at no less than $58 billion, around 12% below the decade-long first-quarter norm. Analysts attribute the comparatively moderate loss profile primarily to a delayed onset of severe convective storm (SCS) activity in the United States, alongside the absence of multiple high-impact, billion-dollar global catastrophe events.
| Metric | Q1 2026 Estimate | 10-Year Q1 Average | 5-Year Average | Variance vs 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insured losses | ≥ $20bn | $26bn | Higher than Q1 2026 | -26% |
| Economic losses | ≥ $58bn | ~ $66bn (implied) | N/A | -12% |
| $1bn+ economic events | 17 globally | Higher long-term average | N/A | Lower activity |
| $1bn+ insured events | 5 | Higher long-term average | N/A | Reduced frequency |
Despite the overall moderation, the quarter still saw at least 17 global events generating economic losses exceeding $1 billion, although only five of these translated into insured losses above that threshold. The most significant single event was a severe North American winter storm in late January, which affected more than two dozen US states and parts of southern Canada. The storm system, coupled with an Arctic air outbreak, produced insured losses of at least $4 billion between 21 and 26 January, making it the fourth-costliest US winter weather event on record.
Gallagher Re noted that while several catastrophes during the quarter had substantial humanitarian and infrastructural impacts, they did not collectively translate into unusually high insured or economic loss totals. As a result, (re)insurers entered the remainder of 2026 with broadly sufficient catastrophe budget capacity.
The broker also estimated that only a scenario involving insured losses between $115 billion and $125 billion above expected annual catastrophe averages would materially alter property reinsurance pricing trajectories.
In Europe, windstorm activity stood out as particularly notable. Although no single windstorm event exceeded $10 billion in insured losses, the peril has already become the continent’s most costly on an economic basis since 1999. This prolonged absence of a “peak” insured event has reignited debate over whether European windstorm should still be classified alongside other peak perils such as US hurricanes and earthquakes.
In the United States, severe convective storms continue to represent one of the most persistent and costly drivers of insured loss volatility. Since 2008, annual SCS losses have exceeded $20 billion on nine occasions, surpassed $30 billion five times, and exceeded $50 billion in each of the past three years (2023–2025).
Gallagher Re emphasised that 80–90% of the long-term increase in SCS-related losses is attributable to non-hazard factors, including rising construction and labour costs, social inflation, volatile energy prices, and rapid housing expansion in high-risk regions such as Texas. The state alone has added approximately 4.5 million residential properties since 2000 within the most exposed SCS zones.
Chief Science Officer Steve Bowen highlighted that future loss management will depend as much on socioeconomic adaptation as on hazard modelling, stressing the importance of resilient construction and broader risk awareness across underwriting and portfolio strategies.
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