Oil Prices Surge Amid Global Supply Concerns

Global oil markets have been thrown into turmoil following Iran’s retaliatory strikes in response to military actions by the United States and Israel. The unrest has driven crude oil prices above the $100-per-barrel threshold, prompting concerns among analysts that prices could escalate further if supply disruptions persist.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged more than 20% on Sunday, 8 March, reaching $114 per barrel at its peak. On Monday, prices climbed further to $119.50 per barrel, before easing slightly to $112.98 in later trading. This marks the first time since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict that crude oil prices have exceeded $100 per barrel.

Experts point to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply transits. Fears of temporary supply interruptions have pushed crude prices up by as much as 24%, with Brent crude in Asian markets trading at $114.74 per barrel.

Simultaneously, lighter West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, traded on NYMEX, rose over 26% to $114.78 per barrel. Peter McGuire, CEO of Trading.com Australia, warned that the rapid surge in oil prices could lead to further volatility. “If additional countries in the Gulf region halt or reduce oil and gas production, we could see prices spike dramatically, potentially reaching $140 to $150 per barrel,” he said.

The G7 finance ministers are reportedly discussing joint releases of strategic oil reserves via the International Energy Agency to alleviate market anxiety and dampen volatility. Such coordinated measures could temporarily stabilise prices, though market observers remain cautious.

US President Donald Trump, however, downplayed concerns over rising oil prices, stating, “A short-term increase in oil prices is not a major issue. Once Iran’s nuclear threat is neutralised, prices will fall quickly. The cost is small compared to the security and peace of the United States and the world.”

Similarly, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasised that any petrol price increase would be temporary during his appearance on Face the Nation.

Since the joint US-Israel strikes on 28 February, global crude oil prices have surged nearly 50%. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran has issued stern warnings, indicating that if further attacks occur, key energy infrastructure in the Middle East could be targeted. The IRGC cautioned that under such circumstances, oil prices could escalate to as high as $200 per barrel.

Recent Crude Oil Price Movements (March 2026)

The combination of geopolitical tension and potential supply bottlenecks has created one of the most volatile periods in the oil market in recent years, raising concerns for global energy security and economic stability.