Reinsurance Outlook Strengthens into 2026

The global re/insurance sector is set to continue benefiting from a broadly supportive macroeconomic environment in 2026, underpinned by steady global growth and gradually easing inflationary pressures, according to Swiss Re’s latest annual outlook.

The reinsurer projects global economic growth of around 2.8% in 2026, broadly unchanged from 2025 levels. This stability, combined with moderating inflation trends, is expected to create a favourable—though not risk-free—operating backdrop for insurers and reinsurers worldwide.

Swiss Re noted that in 2025 the global economy demonstrated notable resilience despite heightened trade frictions, geopolitical tensions and persistent policy uncertainty. Against this backdrop, the industry benefited from several supportive factors, including robust labour markets, relatively strong financial market performance and elevated long-term government bond yields, which continue to provide attractive reinvestment opportunities for insurers.

However, while demand for insurance and reinsurance remained solid, global premium growth showed signs of normalisation. Total worldwide insurance premiums are estimated to have increased by 3.9% in real terms in 2025, a slowdown from the exceptional 5.7% expansion recorded in 2024. Swiss Re attributed this moderation to a transition away from post-pandemic catch-up growth towards a more sustainable long-term trajectory.

Looking ahead, the firm expects further moderation in premium expansion, with global insurance growth projected to average around 2.0% in real terms across 2026–2027. Despite this slowdown, profitability is expected to remain supported by strong investment income and disciplined underwriting conditions.

Key sector and macroeconomic projections

Swiss Re also highlighted that financial markets are likely to remain broadly supportive in 2026, with equities expected to generate positive returns and high-quality investment-grade credit spreads remaining tight. Nevertheless, elevated asset valuations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties could trigger periodic volatility.

Within the property and casualty (P&C) segment, Swiss Re anticipates a cyclical low point in growth during 2026–2027 as competitive pressures intensify. However, medium-term structural drivers are expected to provide support. These include rising exposure to natural catastrophes driven by urbanisation and asset concentration in high-risk areas, increasing liability costs, and investment linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure such as data centres, advanced hardware, and energy systems.

In contrast, the life and health (L&H) segment is expected to maintain relatively robust performance. Premiums are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of around 2.8% in real terms during 2026–2027, supported by stronger consumer awareness of protection needs. Swiss Re also pointed to the normalisation of excess mortality trends and sustained long-term bond yields as additional factors underpinning profitability.

Overall, Swiss Re concluded that while growth is moderating from post-pandemic highs, the sector remains well-positioned to benefit from structural demand trends and a supportive, albeit evolving, macro-financial environment.