Russia and Belarus Begin Military Drills as West Watches Warily

Russia and its key ally Belarus commenced major joint military exercises early on Friday, heightening tensions for NATO days after Poland accused Moscow of escalating hostilities by sending attack drones across its airspace.

The “Zapad” exercises coincide with Russia’s ongoing operations along the sprawling front line in Ukraine and an increase in aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities.

NATO’s eastern flank members bordering Belarus — Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia — are on high alert. Belarus has announced the drills will take place near Borisov, east of its capital, Minsk.

All three countries have strengthened security measures in response:

• Poland has ordered the complete closure of its border with Belarus for the duration of the exercises.
• Lithuania and Latvia have announced partial airspace closures.

Russia’s Defence Ministry confirmed: "The joint strategic manoeuvres of the Russian and Belarusian armies ... have started."

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of “critical days” for his country, stating Poland is closer to an “open conflict” than at any time since World War II. His comments followed an incident on Wednesday when Poland and its NATO allies scrambled jets to intercept Russian drones crossing its airspace.

Moscow has downplayed the concerns: "These are planned exercises, they are not aimed against anyone," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, rejecting Poland’s claim that the drills represent an aggressive show of force.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned: "The meaning of such actions by Russia is definitely not defensive and is directed precisely against not only Ukraine."

Russia also claimed it had intercepted 221 Ukrainian drones over its territory overnight.

The 2025 iteration of Zapad, usually held every four years, is the first during the ongoing Ukraine conflict and will run until 16 September.

According to Tusk, the exercises are designed to simulate the occupation of the Suwalki corridor, a geographical gap along the border between Poland and Lithuania, flanked by Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. This corridor is considered a NATO vulnerability and could be the first target in a potential Russian offensive. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko dismissed such concerns as “utter nonsense”.

The drills have acquired additional significance due to Russia’s stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The exercises reportedly include nuclear strike training.

Military analysts are divided on the importance:

• Alexander Khramchikhin, Moscow-based, describes the drills as “just a show” with little special significance, noting they are routine and rotate across Russia.
• Vassily Kashin, Kremlin-linked analyst, sees them as both a demonstration and real combat training, emphasising readiness to defend Belarus if necessary. He also noted that Poland and its allies are conducting counter-drills through September, and simultaneous exercises are likely to continue as they did during the Cold War.

The Zapad exercises, coupled with NATO’s vigilance and the broader conflict in Ukraine, have created a tense atmosphere in Eastern Europe, with diplomatic and military observers monitoring developments closely.